Euro 2024: Group D betting preview

In this article, we take a look at the contenders in Group D at Euro 2024 and try to make some predictions.

Euro 2024: Who will qualify from Group D ?

FRANCE

To Win the Group: 1.57

To Win Euro 2024: 4.62

France performed surprisingly poorly at the last European Championship, winning just one of their four games and throwing away a 3-1 lead in the Round of 16 to lose to Switzerland on penalties. As the French were defending World Cup champions and have since got to another final in that competition, Didier Deschamps will hope for a better performance this time around.

His side could barely have performed better in qualification. The only match France failed to win was a 2-2 draw away to Greece in the final round of fixtures, after their passage to Germany this summer had already been secured. With an eye on the outcome of this group, bear in mind that Les Bleus beat Netherlands home (4-0) and away (2-1) in qualifying.

They are not infallible, not that any team is in international football. France lost two friendlies to Germany this season and had to come from behind to beat Chile in March.

But Deschamps’ squad is dripping in quality. Kylian Mbappé obviously leads the way but add in the likes of Antoine Griezmann and Aurélien Tchouaméni plus wily old campaigner Olivier Giroud and it is clear why France are second favorites to win the tournament. If anything, you could ask why they aren’t leading the market.

NETHERLANDS

To Win the Group: 4.00

To Win Euro 2024: 17.06

While not at France’s level, Ronald Koeman also possesses a fine roster of players with Netherlands. The Liverpool pair of Virgil van Dijk and Cody Gakpo will be heavily involved, as should Manchester City defender Nathan Aké. New Bundesliga winner Jeremie Frimpong hasn’t established himself in the side yet but can potentially offer a significant threat from the right.

It’s reasonable to expect the Dutch to reach the knockout phase – their Outright market price implies they should reach the quarterfinals – but a look at their results from the last two years shows that they may struggle beyond that. Netherlands were knocked out of the 2022 World Cup on penalties by eventual champions Argentina, lost to France twice in Euro 2024 qualifying and have also been beaten by Croatia, Germany and Italy in the last year.

In other words, they have tended to struggle against the better nations. But as they beat Austria at Euro 2020 and took four points from Poland in the 2022-23 Nations League, Netherlands can be confident of advancing to the Round of 16. It’s from there onwards that the problems may start, with a repeat of their triumph in 1988 looking very unlikely.

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AUSTRIA

To Win the Group: 9.00

To Win Euro 2024: 52.17

Austria reached the Round of 16 at Euro 2020, taking eventual champions Italy to extra time. It was the first time they had gotten through the group stage at a major tournament since 1982. They shouldn’t have to wait as long for it to happen again.

The Austrians finished runners-up to Belgium in qualifying, though a 3-2 loss against them was their only defeat in eight matches. With an eye on potential tournament performance, it’s worth noting that Ralf Rangnick’s side drew 1-1 in Belgium and won their three other away games. They are not solely reliant upon home support to do well.

And nor should they be with a squad which includes Bundesliga stars Christoph Baumgartner, Konrad Laimer and Marcel Sabitzer, plus Inter Milan loanee and former West Ham striker, Marko Arnautović. Having beaten Germany and Turkey in friendlies this season, the latter getting thumped 6-1, Austria will feel they can be competitive in a tricky group here.

By facing France first, the likelihood is that Austria will be pointless when taking on Poland in their second game. That match will be pivotal to both sides’ hopes of progression.

POLAND

To Win the Group: 12.01

To Win Euro 2024: 151.48

Poland’s path to Euro 2024 was convoluted, hugely complicated and thoroughly unconvincing. The Poles finished third behind Albania and Czech Republic in qualifying Group E despite being in Pot 1 when the draw was made.

They earned a spot in the playoffs thanks to their performance in the 2022/23 Nations League. However, they were third in a four-team group in that competition so hardly set the world alight. After cruising past Estonia 5-1 in the semifinal, it took a shootout victory over Wales to earn them one of the final three spots in Germany this summer.

A team that can call upon Robert Lewandowski should have a chance of upsetting the odds. But he needs service and even he only scored three goals in the qualification group. To win just three of eight matches at that stage when top seed does not bode well with France and Netherlands on the horizon.

If there’s a positive, it is that they don’t concede that many goals either. But having only taken one point from three games at Euro 2020, a repeat could very easily be on the cards here.

PREDICTION

At face value, this group feels straightforward. It could finish in the above order as per the odds and nobody would bat an eyelid. It’s a higher quality section than it might first appear, though, as the only group of the six containing four teams from the top 28 in April’s FIFA Rankings.

Poland to finish first and France last, then? Unlikely. But as much as the French and Dutch should take the top two spots, this group feels ripe for upsets.

Find all Euro 2024 match odds on Bet2invest

*Odds subject to change