How to Make Money in Sports Betting with Mathematics and Statistics

Analysis of Pinnacle’s odds

The odds offered by Pinnacle for this match were:

• 1 → 5.020
• X → 3.800
• 2 → 1.689

First, we calculate the bookmaker’s margin:

Margin = ((1/5.020)+(1/3.800)+(1/1.689))×100((1 / 5.020) + (1 / 3.800) + (1 / 1.689)) × 100((1/5.020)+(1/3.800)+(1/1.689))×100 – 100

Margin ≈ 5.42%

We then remove this margin to obtain the “true” market odds:

• 1 → 5.292
• X → 4.006
• 2 → 1.781

Which gives Pinnacle’s implied real probabilities:

• 1 → 1 / 5.292 = 18.90%
• X → 1 / 4.006 = 24.96%
• 2 → 1 / 1.781 = 56.14%

Probability comparison

We now compare our probabilities with the bookmaker’s:

• 1: 15% vs 18.90% → no value
• X: 18% vs 24.96% → no value
• 2: 67% vs 56.14% → strong value

Our estimate produced a fair price of 1.49, while Pinnacle was offering 1.689.

This represents a mathematical edge of:

(1.689 / 1.492) × 100 = 113.20%

👉 Which corresponds to a +13.20% expected value bet.

Result and long-term logic

The match ended with a 4–3 win for Al-Ettifaq.

In this specific case, the final result confirmed our position. However, one point is absolutely critical:

✔️ A single match never validates a method.

✔️ Only a large sample size validates a model.

Even with a genuine mathematical edge, many bets will lose. What makes the difference is not the apparent strike rate, but the consistent gap between your probabilities and those of the market.

Over the long term, if your algorithm is accurate and you only bet when value is present, mathematics will do the work.

Conclusion

Being profitable in sports betting is not about instinct, passion for sport, or searching for “sure wins.”

It relies exclusively on three pillars:

• statistical modeling,
• accurate probability estimation,
• systematic identification of value bets.

It is not the easiest approach.

It is not the most exciting.

But it is the only one that works in the long run.