The 2025/26 La Liga season kicks off on August 15, 2025, and all signs point towards another head-to-head title race between Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, according to Pinnacle odds. Behind them, Atlético Madrid stands as the only genuine challenger, while several other teams will target European spots or fight for survival.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the title favorites, European contenders, potential surprises, relegation candidates, and the key transfers completed since June 1st, 2025.
🔝 Title Favorites
Real Madrid – 1.952
Key arrivals (since June 1st):
- Franco Mastantuono (River Plate – June 13)
- Álvaro Carreras (Benfica – July 14)
- Dean Huijsen (Bournemouth)
- Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool)
Key departures:
- Luka Modrić (AC Milan)
- Lucas Vázquez (Free transfer)
State of play: With Xabi Alonso at the helm, Madrid strengthened its defense and midfield depth. Alexander-Arnold’s arrival adds creativity from the back, but replacing Modrić’s influence will be a challenge.
FC Barcelona – 2.050
Key arrivals:
- Joan García (Espanyol – €25M clause)
- Roony Bardghji (FC Copenhagen)
- Marcus Rashford (Loan – Manchester United)
Key departures:
- Iñigo Martínez (Saudi Pro League)
State of play: The defending champions are still constrained by financial fair play but managed to land high-upside signings. Xavi will rely on a blend of experienced leaders and La Masia prospects.
Atlético Madrid – 11.240
Key arrivals:
- Álex Baena (Villarreal)
- Thiago Almada (Botafogo)
- Johnny Cardoso (Real Betis)
- Matteo Ruggeri (Atalanta)
- David Hancko (Feyenoord)
- Marc Pubill (Levante)
- Clément Lenglet (Free)
- Juan Musso (Atalanta)
Key departures:
- Rodrigo De Paul, César Azpilicueta, Saúl Ñíguez
State of play: Diego Simeone has assembled one of the deepest squads in years, giving Atlético the tools to stay competitive deep into the season.
🌟 European Contenders
Athletic Club – 68.770
Steady squad with minimal turnover, banking on the defensive stability of Ernesto Valverde’s side.
Real Betis – 101.000
Added Pau López, Junior Firpo, Valentín Gómez to keep their Europa League hopes alive.
Villarreal – 101.0
Reinforced with Rafa Marín, Alberto Moleiro, and Tajon Buchanan. Needs more consistency to challenge for the top 6.
Real Sociedad – 103.630
Signed Gonçalo Guedes from Wolves to add more attacking flair.
❓ Potential Dark Horses
Celta Vigo – 257.170
Veteran striker Iago Aspas remains central. Additions of Ilaix Moriba, Ionuț Radu, Bryan Zaragoza improve depth.
Girona – 257.170
Ambitious with the arrival of Odsonne Édouard. Could aim for another top-8 finish.
Sevilla – 257.170
A turbulent 2024/25 means they must find stability quickly to be competitive again.
Valencia – 257.170
Lost goalkeeper Mamardashvili, replaced with youth options. Transfers include Dani Raba, Copete, Julen Agirrezabala.
⚠️ Relegation Candidates
Mallorca (1005.270) – Limited depth, survival is the primary goal.
Alavés (1022.730) – Will focus on a defensive approach.
Elche (1022.730) – Needs goals to stay up.
Espanyol (1022.730) – Back in La Liga 2023/2024 but with an inexperienced squad.
Getafe (1022.730) – Physical but lacks creativity.
Levante (1022.730) – Minimal summer investment.
Osasuna (1022.730) – Lost key players in the summer.
Rayo Vallecano (1022.730) – Strong home atmosphere but thin squad.
Real Oviedo (1022.730) – Newly promoted, facing an uphill battle.
🔄 Key Transfers Since June 1, 2025
Major arrivals:
- Real Madrid: Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Carreras, Mastantuono
- Barcelona: Joan García, Bardghji, Rashford (loan)
- Atlético Madrid: Baena, Almada, Cardoso, Ruggeri, Hancko, Pubill, Lenglet, Musso
- Real Sociedad: Gonçalo Guedes
- Girona: Odsonne Édouard
- Celta Vigo: Moriba, Radu, Zaragoza
- Real Betis: Pau López, Firpo, Gómez
- Villarreal: Rafa Marín, Moleiro, Buchanan
Major departures:
- Modrić (Real Madrid → AC Milan)
- Lucas Vázquez (Real Madrid – Free)
- Iñigo Martínez (Barcelona → Saudi Pro League)
- Mamardashvili (Valencia → Premier League)
- De Paul, Azpilicueta, Saúl (Atlético)
✅ Conclusion
The 2025/26 La Liga season promises another fierce duel between Real Madrid and Barcelona, with Atlético hoping to crash the party. European places will be hotly contested, while nearly half the league will be battling to avoid relegation. Transfers since June 1 have reshaped several squads, setting the stage for a dramatic season.
