Following a sports betting tipster, good or bad idea?
Mastering the art of sports betting over the long term is quite a challenge, which requires seriousness, professionalism and expertise.
You play alone, against the bookmakers...
Either you win or they win...
And only a handful of punters manage to beat sports betting sites in the long run. But then, how do you get there and should you follow “tipsters” to make money from betting?
Choosing the right bookmakers, step 1 towards profitability in sports betting
The choice of the bookmaker is really important, because the higher the margins, the lower your chances of winning. To prevail over time against betting sites, you will always have to be in search of the best odds.
However, nothing is as simple as it looks in the world of sports betting. Indeed, the majority of bookmakers today limit winning bettors, which complicates things for many players...
Fortunately, Pinnacle, Exchanges and Asian Platforms exist and allow you to play a lot, without being limited, with minimal margins. But accessing it from certain countries like France can be a real way of the cross.
You will have to go through what is called a “Broker” such as AsianConnect for example in order to be able to access these sites and finally benefit from the best odds on the bets of your choice.
ROI, a key evaluation criterion for forecasters
From how many ROI are you a good bettor?
The benchmark metric used by tipsters and bettors to assess betting performance is Return on Investment (also known as ROI). It represents the amount won or lost for each euro wagered on a sporting event.
The more bets you take, the more significant your ROI will be. It is generally considered that, from 1000 bets, an ROI begins to have a curve that makes sense, and that your results reflect your profile as a bettor, taking into account the smoothing of the variance.
Even if your ROI largely depends on the liquidity of a market and the sports you have selected, it is important to note that you will hardly be able to keep an ROI above 10% unless you are really a betting genius. It is often considered that from 3%, a bettor is already very good, and above 5% it is excellent.
Exceeding the 10% mark is almost impossible, whether you trust your own intuition or follow the advice of the best tipsters on the planet.
Warning: The ROI is an essential data but it must be verified. Anyone can create a balance sheet by hand and invent exceptional results.
At Bet2Invest, we are committed to favoring the transparency of results and that is why we have a platform that certifies 100% the legitimacy of the balance sheet, which is not falsifiable.
Variance, an integral part of betting life
Considering the above, if you bet a total of €2,000 per month, you should be more than happy with a monthly profit of €100. So, obviously, you will have months at much more than 100€ when you are in good times, but you will also have months at much less than 100€, this is called the variance…
Keep in mind that these figures represent average profits. On 20 or 30 bets, even the worst punter could have an ROI of 20 or 30%, but it is the long term that will restore the reality of the field.
Even if on social networks, many guys promise exceptional and constant gains each month thanks to expertise taken out of a hat, pay close attention to this.
NOBODY can guarantee you will be profitable on 50 bets, sports betting is made of periods and roller coasters that keep going up and down throughout the year.
Are tipsters and followers really in the same boat?
The "professional punters", good plan or scam?
If you have been in the sports betting business for a while, you may have observed that there are many tipsters who offer their service for a fee. Even though many of them go through social networks and make more money on your losses than on your winnings, some are still reliable!
There are really tipsters who are very competent in their field and able to have excellent results. But beware, not everything is so easy...
First of all, there is sometimes a difference between the yield announced by tipsters and the actual yield achieved by their subscribers. Bookmakers regularly adjust odds based on demand. Therefore, it is possible that a tipster offers a bet, but by the time his followers follow this bet, the bookmakers lower the odds. As a result, an expected return of 5% could drop to zero or even turn negative for punters who follow the advice of the tipster.
The extent of the decline in odds varies depending on the sport and the markets involved. While a big football match like a Champions League final enjoys virtually unlimited liquidity, a first round match of an ATP 250 tournament in tennis can suffer from low liquidity, sometimes resulting in instant drops of 0.1 or 0.2 if a tipster decides to share a bet on a given sporting event. In such cases, the added value of the bet is no longer the same.
Social networks, the favorite channel of sports betting expert pseudonyms…
The rise of social networks has brought with it an anthology of tipsters, all posing as geniuses capable of winning every time thanks to unique and exceptional techniques. Don't be fooled, these specimens are often much better at marketing than betting!
The objective of this article is to warn novice bettors, and to inform them about the reality of this sector, monopolized by sharks, ready to do anything to bite into their prey.
Caution is the mother of safety, and before you start following a tipster you don't know, be sure to check their statistics to make sure they are not distorted.
Real tipsters do not promise winnings. They work in silence, in their corner, and simply suggest that you follow their advice, hoping that you will benefit from it after a while. They don't drive around in a Lamborghini in Dubai with racks in the glove box...
Thursday, July 6, 2023
In my same category
Billy Walters, the crazy story of the best gambler in the world
Wednesday, November 8, 2023
Billy Walters is recognized by many as the greatest sports bettor of all time, although he has had some trouble with the law. You don't know his story? Come on, I'll give it to you quickly because it's still worth the detour!Billy Walters, the story of a ...See the article
Opening Odds: Gaining an Edge in the Market
Monday, September 11, 2023
Opening odds deserve special attention by the bettors. They offer a way to gain an advantage over sports betting websites and profit from value bets, a crucial objective in a long-term profitability strategy.Understanding the fluctuation of odds in the re...See the article
The different types of sports betting
Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Sports betting has become one of the most important hobbies of the world industry, and for good reason! More than 8 billion euros have been in 2022 only in France, and 150 billions in the world.Sports fans around the world love to put their knowledge to t...See the article