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Opening Odds: Gaining an Edge in the Market

Opening odds deserve special attention by the bettors. They offer a way to gain an advantage over sports betting websites and profit from value bets, a crucial objective in a long-term profitability strategy.

Understanding the fluctuation of odds in the realm of sports betting is a crucial aspect of your success. These odds constantly change until the event begins and are influenced by various information and actions by bettors.

market fluctuation

What Are Opening Odds? 

For every sporting event, bookmakers establish odds under different formats to create a market, and these initial odds are called 'opening odds.' They result from the work of bookmakers' software and analyst teams, who evaluate the probability of success for each bet using algorithms based on a variety of statistics. 

Although they are not error-free, bookmakers gradually adjust these odds based on available information and the amounts wagered by bettors.

As the event approaches, the odds are readjusted to reach what is known as the 'closing odds,' which are supposed to be more accurate.

odds in sport betting

Betting on Opening Odds, a Boon? 

Every seasoned bettor's ultimate goal is to spot 'value,' meaning odds that are too high compared to their own probability estimates based on their personal analyses. 

It's possible for odds to be considered a value a few days before the event but no longer be one by the end of the market due to adjustments made by bookmakers based on the latest information and financial risk, which may lower the odds.

Opening odds are primarily determined automatically by bookmakers. Therefore, an informed bettor can quickly identify value bets among the opening odds, especially in niche markets. 

This allows them to gain an advantage over bookmakers who lack precision at the beginning of the market.

Why doesn't everyone do it? 

Be aware that not everything is as rosy (as is often the case in the betting world). There are disadvantages to consider. To exploit poorly adjusted opening odds, you must act quickly because bookmakers will react swiftly as well. 

If a significant value appears when the odds open, other bettors will notice it quickly and place their own bets, leading to an immediate correction of the odds. In such a scenario, the value will be nullified or at least reduced.

opening odds

Bookmakers and Opening Odds 

It's important to note that bookmakers are aware that opening odds can be poorly adjusted, prompting them to reduce the Player Return Rate (PRR) to limit potential losses (Bet365 is doing it often, you can juste check it).

Additionally, in some sports, betting at the opening odds can be challenging because crucial information may emerge between the opening and closing, such as player injuries or the official team composition, as is often the case in rugby or basketball. 

As a result, a value identified two days before a match can be canceled or even become a 'sub-value' after the emergence of major information just before the event begins.

For individual sports, the situation is different. Firstly, because an injury generally results in a player withdrawing even before the start of the match, and secondly, because the time between the opening and closing odds is much shorter, as in tennis.

cotes d'ouverture

In short, opening odds represent a significant opportunity for sports bettors. 

Understanding their operation and evolution can enable bettors to gain an advantage over bookmakers by identifying value bets. 

However, it's crucial to remain aware of the challenges that come with this strategy.

Reactivity is essential because bookmakers will quickly adjust the odds in response to the financial risk they pose. 

Moreover, in some sports, crucial information can arise between the opening odds and the start of the event, making predictions difficult. 

Despite these challenges, opening odds remain a viable strategy for bettors who master their domain. They can help maximize long-term gains.


Monday, September 11, 2023

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