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The “Closing Odd” in sports betting: Understanding its importance

In the world of sports betting, many specific terms are used to try to decipher the different facets of this field.


One of these essential terms is the “Closing Odd”, which plays a crucial role on several levels for bettors.


In this article, we will dive into the heart of this concept of the Closing Odd, in order to understand its importance and its impact on sports betting strategies.


closing odd


What is the closing odd?


Definition of the closing odd


The Closing Odd refers to the final odds of a sporting event just before it begins.


In other words, these are the odds that are in effect at the exact moment the match or event begins. These odds are set by the bookmakers based on the most recent information available, such as team rosters, player injuries and other factors that could have an effect on the market, such as financial risk.


Odds evolution before closing


Before reaching the closing odd, the odds can fluctuate depending on various factors. Bookmakers adjust odds based on the money wagered on each potential outcome. 


If a large number of bettors bet on a certain outcome, the odds for that specific outcome may drop due to increased demand. Likewise, if the bookmakers get new information that could influence the outcome, they will adjust the odds accordingly.


bettors pinnacle


The Importance of the Closing Odd


Reflection on the final dimensions


The Closing Odd is important to bettors as it provides a final and up-to-date indication of bookmakers' perceptions of the probabilities of various outcomes of a sporting event. 


Good bettors can use this information to assess the relative likelihood of each outcome and determine if an odd appears to offer potential value.


Basis for Strategies


Experienced bettors often incorporate the Closing Odd into their sports betting strategies. By comparing closing odds with their own probability estimates, they can spot significant discrepancies that indicate potential value opportunity


However, it is important to note that bookmakers have considerable data resources to establish their odds, and therefore punters must always carry out their analyzes with their “own weapons”.


odds evolution in betting


How to use the Closing Odd


Analyze variations


A common strategy is to follow the evolution of the odds over time and analyze the variations until the Closing Odd. If a rating changes significantly, it may indicate a change in bookmakers' perceptions or important new information. 


Bettors can exploit these variations to spot potential opportunities, mainly on Pinnacle or Exchanges.


Compare with own estimates


Bettors can also compare closing odds with their own probability estimates for each outcome.


If their estimate differs significantly from the Closing Odd, this could indicate a betting opportunity where the bookmakers are underestimating or overestimating the probability of an outcome.


Beating the closing odd, a true sign of skill?


Well yes and no… If you manage to regularly beat the closing odds on huge markets such as the five major European football leagues, then yes, you will have a good chance of being profitable in the long term.


However, this does not work everywhere! The more you play a “niche” market (ie benefiting from fairly limited liquidity), the more likely you will be to beat the closing odd, since your own movement could impact the market depending on the amount you play.


In short, beating the closing is a recognized basis for many bettors, but it is a statistic to be taken with a grain of salt depending on the context.


beat the closing line in betting


In conclusion, the Closing Odd plays a crucial role in the world of sports betting. It represents the final and updated odds of a sporting event just before its start. Bettors can use this information to gauge the relative likelihood of outcomes and spot betting opportunities.


However, it is essential to combine close odds analysis with other decision-making factors to come up with the best possible strategy.


By understanding and using the concept of the Closing Odd wisely, you can most certainly improve your chances of becoming profitable in the long run in the fierce jungle of sports betting.


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On your marks, get set, bet.

Monday, August 28, 2023

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