As the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 approaches, set to take place in the United States, the football world is closely watching this newly expanded 32-team tournament. Opta has released its data-driven predictions as of June 9, 2025, estimating each club’s chances of progressing through every stage of the competition and ultimately lifting the trophy.
🔝 Top Favorites According to Opta’s Model:
- Paris Saint-Germain (18.5%) – The French giants lead the projection, with a 91.6% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 30.9% probability of making the final.
- Manchester City (17.8%) – The reigning European champions are close contenders.
- Bayern Munich (12.8%), Inter Milan (12.3%), and Real Madrid (9.8%) round out the top five.
South American powerhouses such as River Plate, Palmeiras, Flamengo, and Al Hilal show significantly lower winning probabilities but remain formidable in a knockout format.
📊 Progression Probabilities by Stage
The following table shows each team’s probability (%) of reaching each tournament phase based on Opta's simulations.
▶ Stage-by-Stage Probabilities (in %)
💰 Theoretical Betting Odds by Phase
Now let’s convert those probabilities into implied betting odds, using this formula:
Odds = 100 / Probability (%)
These are ideal odds without bookmaker margin, providing a clean look at the relative likelihood of each outcome.
▶ Implied Odds by Stage (Decimal Format)
Conclusion:
If you find odds significantly higher than those listed above, they represent "value bets" that may be wise to take advantage of.
