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Optimizing Variance in Sports Betting

To become a truly winning bettor over the long term, it is imperative to understand and accept the concept of variance in sports betting.

In this article, we will embark on a journey around the various crucial concepts of betting in order to understand and optimize the management of your bankroll, and thus increase your chances of long-term success.

variance in betting

Variance, the best enemy of the sports bettor

Variance is a key term in sports betting. By its literal definition, it represents a statistical concept that calculates the difference between the mathematical expectation and the mean difference.

Well, I grant you, it's a bit complicated from this angle. But, if we simplify things, it represents the difference between your projected earnings and your actual earnings.

Why the bettor's “best enemy”? Quite simply because it is closely linked to your composure and your ability to stay on the same course throughout your life as a tipster.

If you are an experienced bettor, you may already know the concept of "expected ROI" (we explain everything about ROI right here). It represents the amount a player is supposed to earn for every euro invested in sports betting.

Variance has a significant impact on this parameter and will, over time, create a gap between expected ROI (what you are supposed to earn mathematically) and real ROI (what you actually earn).

The more big odds you play, the bigger the variance will be (and therefore betting volume will play a central role in long-term results) and the more small odds you play, the less it will be felt.

Be careful, just because the variance is lower does not guarantee you better results!

Variance is used to gauge how long it takes a bettor to achieve expected results and generate long-term profits from their predictions.

variance in sports

Variance, a major risk for uninitiated bettors…

The implementation of astute bankroll management is considered the most important factor in optimizing one's profitability in sports betting.

Therefore, it becomes crucial to understand how variance influences the effectiveness of a betting strategy and the ability to withstand the inevitable loss spikes that come with the long run.

The importance of betting volume on the finality of your results is enormous, and requires a good understanding of this aspect to optimize your strategy as a bettor. The more bets you place, the more likely you are to win in the long run.

It's like tossing a coin. Whether you throw it 10 times or 1000 times, the probability of getting an end result close to 50/50 differs significantly.

Above all, don't be afraid of a bad period. You will inevitably face black series, where you will probably lose 10 or 15 predictions in a row. But this is precisely where you will be able to prove that you are a good bettor.

Indeed, a "novice" player will instinctively want to "recover" by increasing his stakes after each lost bet, hoping that the wheel will eventually turn and thus make up for his losses. This is clearly not the best thing to do in these cases.

Learn to be patient. Betting is a long distance race. Keep this in mind and don't change your strategy (if it has been proven). Keep using the statistics and continue your way.

After the rain comes the sun, and if you have experienced a long period of scarcity, you will most certainly experience the opposite situation before long, where your next 10 or 15 bets will be winners and will put you back on the upward slope.

How to optimize your sports betting strategy?

While volume plays a central role in variance, experienced bettors should also consider the type of bet they primarily place. Each bet carries different degrees of risk depending on the odds.

"Serious" bettors primarily use a "fixed stake" or "fixed stake" bet, effectively smoothing out variance over time. The decision to adopt this strategy is up to you, there is not necessarily a "one best way" as long as you make sure to keep a certain regularity in your way of doing things.

optimize betting strategy

What type of sports betting to be profitable?

The profitability of sports betting depends on the strategy you decide to adopt, and each type of bet has its own advantages and disadvantages. Let’s explore the different choices available to you:

  • Simple bet: This type of bet is very popular thanks to its simplicity. It's about analyzing a single match or event. The main advantage lies in its ease of management, since it involves only one result.

  • Multiple and system bets: This bet consists of combining several single bets into a single bet. Although the potential gains may be greater, it obviously proves more difficult to achieve profitability due to the margin imposed by sports betting sites.

  • Long-term betting: This prediction involves tracking a bet over several weeks or months. One of its notable advantages is the reduced impact of variance since you are committing to the long term.

Understanding the concept of variance goes hand-in-hand with long-term success as a sports bettor. The negative periods will always be present, but these should not worry you, just as the positive periods should not distract you.

Keeping your cool should remain the most important thing of your betting strategy.

Obviously, variance is not the only concept to master in betting, and you will also need to be familiar with (among other things) the concept of ROI if you want to progress sustainably and be part of the 3% of winning bettors in the world.

Thursday, July 13, 2023

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